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During the 2016 campaign for the US presidency, Hungary's prime minister was notable as the only head of an EU nation to support the Republican candidate. This support was expected, considering the Hungarian leader's championing of divisive theories such as great replacement ideology and his suppression of journalistic liberties. Analysts observe that Hungary's premier essentially wrote the playbook for the Make America Great Again campaign, with one-time strategist Steve Bannon once praising Orbán as Trump's forerunner.

Campaign Assistance Before the Hungarian Vote

Last week, amid key votes in Hungary only half a year off, Donald Trump offered electoral assistance. While Orbán pursues a fifth straight win leading a country he calls an non-liberal system, his political group lags in the polls. A visit to Washington resulted in more than a few signed Maga baseball caps; it brought considerably more valuable pre-election gifts.

Special Treatment and Financial Shields

Although before admonishing European nations on the imperative to stop all energy imports from Russia, and threatening penalties against countries continuing to purchase Russian crude, the US president agreed to allow a particular exclusion for Hungary – the top consumer among EU members of Russian oil. According to Mr Orbán, the American leadership also agreed to offer a economic protection to Budapest should it encounters any upcoming challenges, especially as the European Union is still blocking billions in EU funding to Hungary due to failures to uphold the rule of law.

The specifics of this deal are vague. But Mr Trump has shown his inclination to assist like-minded partners when the America provided a $20 billion in emergency funds to the Argentine leader, Argentina's president. Although Orbán failed to obtain a campaign-energising Trump visit to the Hungarian capital, the Oval Office meeting nonetheless was a successful endeavor.

Brussels' Worries and Geopolitical Stakes

Among European leaders, Mr Trump’s intervention will have further underlined the international consequences of the forthcoming polls, prior to which the centrist challenger, the rival candidate, enjoys a comfortable lead in opinion data. European leaders are accustomed not to look for reliable policies from the Trump administration, and accept the US president’s efforts to belittle the bloc. However the waiver for Hungary – secured through an pledge to purchase American energy resources – openly contradicts EU aspirations to end imports of Russian energy by the target date.

• Starting in 2022, the top importers in the EU of Russian oil, Hungary and Slovakia, have contributed substantial funds to the Kremlin’s war effort.
• Meanwhile, Hungary has repeatedly used the threat of its veto to impede moves in Ukraine's bid to join the EU.
• While Europe works to forge a unified and effective strategy for supporting Kyiv, and strengthening its hand in any upcoming peace talks, Mr Orbán’s Putin-friendly presence at the diplomatic table continues to be a major hurdle.

Opposition Stance

The opposition candidate has avoided pledging a significant change on the Ukraine conflict, and focused his campaigning on internal matters, while highlighting the necessity for the country to start acting as a productive EU partner. After enduring persistent provocations, EU officials can only wait and hope. The Hungarian leader's apathy to fundamental European principles, such as the support for minority protections and the freedom of non-governmental organizations, has remained a humiliating embarrassment for the European Union. His continued obstructionism toward Ukraine could harm its future security.